An interesting pattern has emerged in Nigerian politics during 2025 that raises questions about democratic norms and opposition activities. Two state governors have issued public statements restricting or discouraging visits by Peter Obi, the 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate. Both governors belong to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Is this coincidence, or does it suggest a broader strategy?
The Data Points
The incidents occurred in April and July 2025. Governor Hyacinth Alia of Benue State effectively blocked Obi’s planned visit to internally displaced persons camps, citing security concerns. Governor Monday Okpebholo of Edo State was more direct, warning that Obi’s “security will not be guaranteed” if he visits without prior clearance.
Key Pattern: What makes these statements analytically interesting is their specificity. No governors from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party, or other opposition parties have made similar pronouncements. The restrictions appear to correlate with party affiliation rather than general security policies.
Electoral Performance Context
Peter Obi’s 2023 presidential campaign produced an unusual result pattern. Despite finishing third nationally with 6,101,533 votes (25.40%), he won 12 states plus the Federal Capital Territory. This represented the strongest third-party performance in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic.
The geographic distribution of his victories tells a story. Obi swept the Southeast (5 states), made significant inroads in the South-South (3 states), and captured key North-Central states including the FCT. Perhaps most symbolically, he defeated Bola Tinubu in Lagos State, the latter’s political stronghold, by 582,454 to 572,606 votes.
Critical Connection: Both states where governors issued warnings fall into Obi’s competitive zones. He won Edo State with 57% of votes and came second in Benue with 41%, losing by fewer than 2,100 votes.
Current Political Control and Restriction Patterns
As of 2025, the APC controls 23 of Nigeria’s 36 states, while the PDP holds 10 and smaller parties control 3. This represents significant consolidation since Tinubu’s presidency began. Does this concentration of power enable coordinated action against opposition figures?
The data reveals a telling pattern. Of the 12 states plus FCT that Obi won in 2023, current APC governors control 6 locations (Lagos, Edo, Cross River, Imo, Nasarawa, Ebonyi, plus FCT). Yet security restrictions have emerged from only 2 of these 6.
Lagos State – Obi won symbolically against Tinubu’s stronghold (47% vote share). Governor Sanwo-Olu has issued no security restrictions.
Edo State – Obi won decisively with 57% vote share. Governor Okpebholo issued direct security warnings in July 2025.
Cross River – Obi won with 42% vote share. Current APC governor has issued no restrictions on opposition visits.
Imo State – Obi achieved 69% vote share in his home region. APC governor maintains no movement restrictions.
Benue State – Obi came second with 41%, losing narrowly. Governor Alia blocked his visit in April 2025.
FCT Abuja – Obi won with 62% vote share in the capital territory. No security concerns raised by authorities.
Lagos State – Obi won symbolically against Tinubu’s stronghold (47% vote share). Governor Sanwo-Olu has issued no security restrictions.
Edo State – Obi won decisively with 57% vote share. Governor Okpebholo issued direct security warnings in July 2025.
Cross River – Obi won with 42% vote share. Current APC governor has issued no restrictions on opposition visits.
Imo State – Obi achieved 69% vote share in his home region. APC governor maintains no movement restrictions.
Benue State – Obi came second with 41%, losing narrowly. Governor Alia blocked his visit in April 2025.
FCT Abuja – Obi won with 62% vote share in the capital territory. No security concerns raised by authorities.
Timing and Political Realignment
The security statements coincided with major opposition realignments. July 2025 saw the formation of a significant coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), bringing together former rivals Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, along with APC defectors like Nasir el-Rufai and Rotimi Amaechi.
Atiku’s departure from the PDP marked his sixth party switch since 1999, according to available records. Peter Obi found himself navigating between maintaining Labour Party membership while participating in the broader coalition. His party’s leadership issued ultimatums, which he deflected by insisting on both LP loyalty and coalition cooperation.
Is the timing of security restrictions coincidental with opposition consolidation? The April warning to Obi preceded coalition formation, but the July escalation in Edo occurred amid intense political realignment activities.
Comparative Analysis
What distinguishes states where restrictions occurred from those where they did not? The data shows a selective pattern worth examining.
Among the 6 APC-controlled areas where Obi won in 2023, only Edo and Benue (where he came second) experienced restrictions. Lagos, despite Obi’s symbolic victory over Tinubu, has seen no such statements from Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu. Cross River, Imo, Nasarawa, and Ebonyi similarly remain unrestricted.
The difference might lie in local political dynamics. Edo recently transitioned from PDP to APC control following the 2024 gubernatorial election. Benue, while APC-controlled, represents a closely contested space where Obi nearly won. Do newly acquired or marginal territories require stronger assertion of control?
Constitutional and Democratic Implications
Section 41 of Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution guarantees freedom of movement for all citizens. The security-based restrictions raise questions about the balance between state security responsibilities and constitutional rights. Are these legitimate security concerns or political intimidation?
The humanitarian nature of restricted activities adds another dimension. Both incidents involved charitable purposes: visiting internally displaced persons in Benue and donating to educational institutions in Edo. If former presidential candidates cannot safely conduct humanitarian activities, what does this suggest about the political environment?
Legal Expert Opinions: Senior Advocate Kunle Edun described the Edo governor’s statements as violating his oath of office. Professor Chidi Odinkalu characterized it as symptomatic of Nigeria’s democratic deterioration.
Questions for Further Analysis
Several questions emerge from this pattern analysis:
Looking Forward
The intersection of opposition realignment and movement restrictions creates an interesting dynamic for Nigeria’s democratic trajectory. The ADC coalition brings together significant political resources, but operating effectiveness depends partly on freedom of movement and assembly.
International observers might note parallels with democratic backsliding patterns elsewhere, where ruling parties use security justifications to limit opposition activities. Whether Nigeria’s institutions can maintain democratic norms amid intensifying political competition remains an open question.
The 2027 election cycle will likely test these dynamics further. With the opposition now consolidated and the ruling party controlling most state governments, the balance between political competition and democratic space becomes increasingly relevant to Nigeria’s democratic future.